Programme risk: time to skip the omelette?

3 Minutes
·
27 March 2026
Damian Fessey
Managing Partner, Oxford8

One of the most striking aspects of distressed programmes – the ones that materially overrun and overspend – is the extent to which risk management simply falls into disuse.  Right when the programme is at its most reactive, and therefore desperately needs mechanisms to capture and deal with risk effectively, its ability to do so is not just poor, it is demonstrably AWOL.  Passive acceptance of risk as a mere occupational hazard has become the order of the day, and the programme is unable even to articulate its cumulative risk exposure.

But why does it happen? PUPs (practitioners under pressure) often insinuate that risk management is inherently flawed: “You can’t make an omelette without breaking a few eggs.”  Perhaps though, the real answer is something very different that happens down at the atomic level of risk management which defines the fundamental make-or-break for a programme’s ability to manage its risks.

To illustrate the point, let’s take the classic example, probably found in 99% of corporate programmes: “There is a risk that insufficient levels of SME (subject matter expert) resource will be available to the programme.”

Dissect that risk.  It doesn’t tell the reader when the risk will occur.  Nor does it explain the type of subject matter expertise required, to do what, or for how long.  And it doesn’t explain the implications of the risk – the bad things that will happen if the risk is not addressed.  Consequently, any risk rating is disembodied (as there’s no practical context), so meaningful prioritisation of the risk amongst a multitude of others is nigh-on impossible.  That one simple sentence of 19 words has just dropped a risk into plain sight that has the potential to cost millions of pounds of slippage across a multi-year multi-million-pound programme, and completely unintentionally, it has been framed in such a way that it is incapable of qualification, quantification, comprehension and above all, resolution.  Wow.

And yet it is ludicrously easy to get a completely different outcome.  Here’s the same risk, reframed:  “There is a risk that insufficient levels of SME (subject matter expert) resource will be available within the Finance team (specifically the Purchase-to-Pay team) across Q1 2026 due to the workload associated with the financial year end.”

That’s 39 words.  For the investment of an extra 20 words, the risk now has the all-important context.  We know when.  We know where.  We know why.  We know for how long.  We have an inkling of what the implications will be, which may add some colour to whatever risk score has been assigned.

So, if an investment of an extra 20 words has paid off, why not go for broke?  52 words gives the reader this:  “There is a risk that insufficient levels of SME (subject matter expert) resource will be available within the Finance team (specifically the Purchase-to-Pay team) across Q1 2026 due to the workload associated with the financial year end, resulting in two months of critical path impact at a cost of £1.5M.”

Now at this point, a PUP will say “But we have examples of SME resource challenges all over the programme.  I’d have to write and manage multiple risks.”  Hmmm.  Could it be that they are multiple risks, each with its own specific characteristics and path to resolution?

Why don’t practitioners think – and behave – like this? Usually because they haven’t been asked, educated or directed to.  Take a long hard look at the typical programme risk strategy – if it even exists – and you probably won’t find clear direction on programme risk:  Lots of lofty corporate verbiage about how important risk management is, but zero direction to be specific about the event or situation that might arise.  Zero direction to specify the when, whom, and the all-important why.  And zero direction to spell out the potential consequences.

19 words and a £1.5M overspend, or 52 words and some smart backfill?   The difference between the two is an effective programme risk management strategy, well communicated and consistently applied.  And quite frankly, doing programme risk well is easier than doing it badly.  Done well, it’s undramatic and time-efficient.  Done badly, it’s the polar opposite.

So, maybe it’s time to skip the omelette?

 

Damian Fessey
Managing Partner, Oxford8

Damian Fessey is a founder member of Oxford8.  His prior career encompasses three decades of programme delivery, as well as an extended tenure as a non-executive advisor to HM Govt Department of Digital, Culture Media and Sport.  He is a graduate of the MSc in Major Programme Management at the Saïd Business School, University of Oxford.

5 Minute Read
·
27 March 2026
What started life as a joke from the movie ‘Airplane!’ created some great insights into management behaviours in a crisis. For those who've never seen the aviation comedy classic ‘Airplane!’, there’s...
Damian Fessey
Managing Partner
8 Minute Read
·
27 March 2026
Being ‘a programme geek’ at social events is rather like being a doctor. Whereas doctors get a constant unsolicited litany of guests’ medical symptoms, programme geeks instead get to hear all...
Damian Fessey
Managing Partner
3 Minute Read
·
27 March 2026
One of the most striking aspects of distressed programmes – the ones that materially overrun and overspend – is the extent to which risk management simply falls into disuse. Right when...
Damian Fessey
Managing Partner

Pinned

5 Minutes

·

2 June 2026
One of my (many) formative experiences in programme delivery was working with a banking client in 2018 right when TSB’s troubled data migration hit the headlines. It was variously described as a ‘meltdown’ and a ‘fiasco’ in the popular press, who carried stories on a daily basis ranging from customers being unable to pay their mortgages or access their accounts, through to one mythical account holder who had supposedly found an extra £5M in his bank account.
8 Minutes

·

27 March 2026
Being ‘a programme geek’ at social events is rather like being a doctor. Whereas doctors get a constant unsolicited litany of guests’ medical symptoms, programme geeks instead get to hear all about ‘the programme that goes wrong’; the tale of the high-stakes, transformational initiative at work that is taking three times as long, costing three times as much, delivering only a third of what it promised, and more importantly is draining the life-force and good humour out of the organisation.

Pinned

3 Minutes

·

21 April 2026
There’s a scene I’ve watched play out umpteen times over the past three decades. The setting is the boardroom, and the starring role is played by a question that I’ve seen posed by some of the most astute non-execs I’ve had the pleasure of knowing. Usually it is directed to the member of the c-suite who is designated as the executive sponsor of the current over-running, over-spending, slippage-laden transformation programme.
3 Minutes

·

8 June 2026
Anybody who has attended a programme management event in the last ten years has probably witnessed at least one debate on the definition of programme assurance. Usually it’s an ideological battle between various camps of theorists and methodologists, where words like ‘confidence’ and ‘likelihood of success’ are bandied about quite liberally.
8 Minutes

·

27 March 2026
Being ‘a programme geek’ at social events is rather like being a doctor. Whereas doctors get a constant unsolicited litany of guests’ medical symptoms, programme geeks instead get to hear all about ‘the programme that goes wrong’; the tale of the high-stakes, transformational initiative at work that is taking three times as long, costing three times as much, delivering only a third of what it promised, and more importantly is draining the life-force and good humour out of the organisation.
3 Minutes

·

8 June 2026
Anybody who has attended a programme management event in the last ten years has probably witnessed at least one debate on the definition of programme assurance. Usually it’s an ideological battle between various camps of theorists and methodologists, where words like ‘confidence’ and ‘likelihood of success’ are bandied about quite liberally.

Pinned

5 Minutes

·

2 June 2026
One of my (many) formative experiences in programme delivery was working with a banking client in 2018 right when TSB’s troubled data migration hit the headlines. It was variously described as a ‘meltdown’ and a ‘fiasco’ in the popular press, who carried stories on a daily basis ranging from customers being unable to pay their mortgages or access their accounts, through to one mythical account holder who had supposedly found an extra £5M in his bank account.

Pinned

5 Minutes

·

2 June 2026
One of my (many) formative experiences in programme delivery was working with a banking client in 2018 right when TSB’s troubled data migration hit the headlines. It was variously described as a ‘meltdown’ and a ‘fiasco’ in the popular press, who carried stories on a daily basis ranging from customers being unable to pay their mortgages or access their accounts, through to one mythical account holder who had supposedly found an extra £5M in his bank account.

Pinned

3 Minutes

·

21 April 2026
There’s a scene I’ve watched play out umpteen times over the past three decades. The setting is the boardroom, and the starring role is played by a question that I’ve seen posed by some of the most astute non-execs I’ve had the pleasure of knowing. Usually it is directed to the member of the c-suite who is designated as the executive sponsor of the current over-running, over-spending, slippage-laden transformation programme.