The onset

3 Minutes
·
8 June 2026
Damian Fessey
Managing Partner, Oxford8

Oxford8 typically engage with a new client from one of three points in the lifecycle of a programme – the outset, the onset or the reset.  This article, the second of a series of three, explores the specific challenges clients face at the onset.

The onset is the point in a programme where initial symptoms of potential failure start to emerge.   Anyone who has ever experienced this situation will tell you that it is almost impossible to identify the moment at which the situation crystalised, and that’s for two reasons: The first is that the symptoms are cumulative – no single symptom on its own equals ‘failure’, but the accumulation of symptoms could, combined, mean that the programme will not be able to deliver the outcome within the agreed timeframe and at the agreed cost.  The second reason is that the cumulative picture of those symptoms is a composite: No single person has the full picture of the overall situation, so getting a joined-up, composite picture – which is essential for consensus on the way forward – requires a significant amount of triangulation, interpretation and supporting evidence.

There is of course, always a context, and there are two pressures that always restrict any attempt by the programme to challenge itself.  The pressures of delivery do not leave much opportunity for reflection, and there is also the pressure to remain positive, even optimistic which can lead to underplaying or subconsciously distorting the facts in plain sight.

There are lots of techniques that could be brought to bear in the onset, but the most important aspect is the conditions set by the programme’s executive sponsor for the review.  Here are the key ones we advise:

1.

Don’t stop the programme.   While the programme is rolling, it’s much easier to assess, because the problems will be live and therefore directly visible.  It’s the difference between “why did that happen?” and “why is that happening?”

2.

Avoid any drama.  Low-key is your friend.  Reviews can be conducted largely based on materials and 1-1 discussions.  A review to confirm progress and identify improvements shouldn’t be a cause for concern or a distraction, provided the review team is also small.  A large review team tends to raise fears of displacement of the programme team very quickly.

3.

Have a clear sequence for the review.  Start upstream with foundational aspects such as business case and scope and work downstream through requirements, etc.  It’s a bit like working the toothpaste out of the tube.

4.

Evidence; one data point is a clue. Two is a theory. Three is a confirmed fact.

5.

Triangulation is your friend.  It not only creates more reliable perspectives, it builds consensus.  One of the most successful onsets we ever conducted went up a gear when the Chief Risk Officer and the Chief Financial Officer sat down together to examine the programme’s risk profile and also cost out the risks.

6.

Root cause analysis can be your best friend or your worst enemy.  Done right, it’s the direct route to the problem.  But get it wrong and you’ll bleed precious time playing whack-a-mole with symptoms.  If you want the former, read this.

7.

Keep diagnosis and treatment separate.  The relationship between root causes and solutions isn’t necessarily 1-1.  Sometimes solutions can cure multiple problems, but that opportunity will be missed if the review attempts to solve problems as it proceeds.  Better to complete the review, secure consensus that the diagnosis is correct first, and then move on to agreeing and implementing the solutions.

8.

Frame the right exit criteria for any solutions that are implemented.  For example, if a new plan is created, the existence of the plan itself does not mean that any concerns around the programme’s ability to plan have been addressed.  Once the plan has been in operation for a couple of months and has been proven to be executable, then the issue has clearly been resolved.

Damian Fessey
Managing Partner, Oxford8

Damian Fessey is a founder member of Oxford8.  His prior career encompasses three decades of programme delivery, as well as an extended tenure as a non-executive advisor to HM Govt Department of Digital, Culture Media and Sport.  He is a graduate of the MSc in Major Programme Management at the Saïd Business School, University of Oxford.

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